هذه المقالة متاحة أيضًا بـ: العربية (Arabic)
Between October and November 2024, about 1.59 million Lebanese, Syrian refugees, and Palestine refugees (29 percent of the total population analysed) experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Among them, about 205,000 people (4 percent of the population analysed) experienced IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.4 million people (25 percent of the population analysed) experienced IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). These results show an increase compared to the 1.26 million people in Phase 3 or above estimated for the April-September 2024 period by the IPC analysis projection update conducted in March 2024.
The significant deterioration of more than 300,000 people in Phase 3 or above is mainly attributed to the compounded impact of conflict and large displacement on aggregate sectors of Lebanese economy such as trade and tourism, which further aggravated the deep economic crisis of the recent years. For the current period of analysis (October to November 2024), the details of the population analysed showed that a total of 928,000 Lebanese residents (24 percent of the resident population), 579,000 Syrian refugees (38 percent of the total Syrian refugee population in Lebanon), and 84,000 Palestine refugees (40 percent of the total Palestine refugee population in Lebanon) experienced Phase 3 or above.
SECURITY SITUATION AND POPULATION MOVEMENTS
The analysis took place between 18 November and 4 December 2024. The ceasefire was announced on 27 November 2024. As such, the assumptions used for the projection period were updated on the day of the ceasefire, based on the available information at that time. The analysis assumed that the ceasefire would extend beyond the initial sixty days until the end of the projection period in March 2025. In addition, given the fluidity of the situation, and its effect on population movements, the analysis assumed that a certain level of displacement will persist throughout the projection period.
Between December 2024 and March 2025, a slight deterioration of the food security situation is expected with about 1.65 million people (30 percent of the analysed population) likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). A total of 201,000 individuals (4 percent) are likely to experience Phase 4, and 1.45 million people (26 percent) are likely to experience Phase 3. Among them, 970,000 Lebanese residents (25 percent of the resident population), 594,000 Syrian refugees (39 percent of the total Syrian refugee population in Lebanon), and 89,000 Palestine refugees (40 percent of the total Palestine refugee population in Lebanon) are likely to experience Phase 3 or above. These populations require urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods and prevent acute malnutrition. In this period, the protracted economic contraction as a residual effect of conflict will persist in a context of likely reduction of Humanitarian Food Assistance (HFA) planned to be distributed in early 2025. Additionally, the high number of internally displaced people (IDPs) returning to their districts of origins in the highly affected areas will not coincide with an immediate reversal of the economic dynamism and food security, despite the implementation of the ceasefire. The mitigating impact of HFA on food insecurity is evident. Based on the pilot PINHA analysis that was conducted for Lebanese residents only in this round, over 230,000 thousand Lebanese resident individuals nationally would also fall into Phase 3 or above in the absence of external humanitarian support.
KEY DRIVERS
Conflict escalation: Between September and November 2024, the conflict had significant humanitarian impact across Lebanon with over 4,000 fatalities, 16,500 injuries, and 1.3 million people directly affected or displaced, overwhelming government services and humanitarian response capacities.
Economic deterioration: Already facing a dire economic situation prior to the escalation of the conflict due to the protracted economic and financial crisis since late 2019, the conflict severely impacted economic activity and livelihoods across all sectors. Market functionality nationwide has dropped, with the most severe impact on operationality and supply chains in El Nabatieh, South and Baalbek-El Hermel governorates.
Inflation: Albeit softening compared to previous years, inflation remains a key driver of food insecurity, with monthly food inflation reaching 5 percent and year-on-year inflation hitting 23 percent in October 2024, despite exchange rate stability. The phase-out of wheat imports subsidies, drove a 9 percent rise in the food Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket cost to USD 37.7 between May and December 2024.
Humanitarian Food Assistance (HFA): While HFA was scaled up following the intensification of the conflict in October 2024, previous cuts had a negative impact on vulnerable families affecting their ability to cope with the different challenges during this period of analysis.
POPULATION
The IPC Technical Working Group (TWG) endorsed the use of population figures provided by the Lebanon Response Plan (LRP) and the Inter-Agency coordination system for the various population groups for this round of analysis, including Lebanese residents, Syrian refugees, and Palestine refugees. While the overall total population figure for the various groups remained the same as in previous analyses, (except for an increase in the number Palestine refugees), there have been significant changes from previous analyses in the total population at district level reflecting both pre-ceasefire displacements and the return movements observed post-ceasefire, necessitating continuous monitoring and updated planning to address the evolving situation effectively. For the current period, the LRP 2025 planning figures per district prior to the announcement of the ceasefire were used for the Lebanese and Syrian Refugees population groups, as they cover the population movements within the country for the period of October and November 2024. For Palestine refugees, the previous IPC analysis figure was used at the national level. For the projection period, the LRP 2025 planning figures per district post the announcement of the ceasefire were used and cover population movements inside the country until 4 December 2024. It is important to note that these estimates did not account for population movements outside the country.
This approach ensures coherence with established frameworks but is subject to severe limitations as the lack of updated and reliable official population statistics and significant population movements within and beyond Lebanon have substantially changed the geographical distribution of the population. Discrepancies in the available estimates further highlight the challenges in estimating the scale of displacement and baseline population figures. For instance, the Lebanon Response Plan (LRP) continues to estimate the Lebanese population at 3.86 million and the Syrian refugee population in Lebanon at 1.5 million, despite ongoing crossings back and forth into Syria. According to Lebanese General Security, between 23 September and 26 November 2024, approximately 641,000 individuals, including 397,000 Syrian refugees and 245,000 Lebanese nationals, crossed from Lebanon into Syria. This mass movement underscores the fluidity of population dynamics during this period. In addition, following the latest developments in Syria, around 92,000 individuals were estimated to have been displaced from Syria into Lebanon by 20 December 2024, including both Lebanese and Syrians nationals (LRC).
